Ukraine's decision to relinquish its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s has become a contentious issue, especially after Russia's invasion. 

Cold War Relics in Ukraine Spark Reflection on Nuclear Disarmament and Security

Under grey skies and a light dusting of snow, remnants of Ukraine’s Soviet past stand as stark symbols of its nuclear history. Missiles, launchers, and transport vehicles from the Cold War era sit as eerie monuments to Ukraine’s once pivotal role in the Soviet nuclear weapons program.  

One of the most striking sights is a partially raised concrete and steel silo, from which a replica of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) peeks out. Though now cracked and weathered with age, this missile serves as a ghostly reminder of Ukraine's former military capabilities.  

The sprawling military base near the central Ukrainian city of Pervomais’k has long since been repurposed into a museum. What was once a symbol of strategic might has become a space for reflection on choices made in the aftermath of independence and, more recently, war.

A Nuclear Arsenal Abandoned for Security Promises

When Ukraine emerged from the Soviet Union’s shadow in the early 1990s, the new nation abandoned its nuclear weapons as part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, Ukraine agreed to dismantle its nuclear arsenal in return for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia.  

Though technically the nuclear missiles belonged to the Soviet Union, one-third of its stockpile was located within Ukraine's borders. The decision to dismantle these weapons was a significant moment, widely celebrated as a step toward disarmament and international peace.  

But nearly 30 years later, the weight of that choice is being reexamined.  

Lessons from the War and the Budapest Memorandum’s Limits 

Oleksandr Sushchenko, a former military academy graduate from Kharkiv who later became a curator at the Pervomais’k museum, reflects on the decision with regret.  

“Seeing what’s happening now in Ukraine, my personal view is that it was a mistake to completely destroy all the nuclear weapons,” Sushchenko says. “But it was a political issue. The top leadership made the decision and we just carried out the orders.”  

Serhiy Komisarenko, a former Ukrainian ambassador to London, adds historical context to the decision, stating that trust in Western allies seemed sufficient at the time. “We were naive, but also we trusted,” he says. “When Britain and the United States joined, we thought that was enough. And Russia as well.”

However, the ongoing war with Russia has sparked renewed debate over that choice. Ukrainian officials and experts are increasingly revisiting the possibility that maintaining a nuclear deterrent might have offered better protection in light of the current conflict.

Ukraine’s Security Dilemma and NATO Membership  

At the recent NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha made its concerns clear by waving a green folder containing the Budapest Memorandum.  

“This document failed to secure Ukrainian and transatlantic security,” Sybiha said. “We must avoid repeating such mistakes.” His ministry labeled the Memorandum as a “monument to short-sightedness in strategic security decision-making.”  

President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently called for NATO membership as a vital security guarantee for Ukraine, emphasizing that both NATO and EU membership are “non-negotiable.” However, NATO members remain divided on granting Ukraine membership, with no formal timeline in place despite affirmations that Ukraine’s path toward membership is "irreversible."  

The alliance continues to focus on a strategy of “peace through strength,” ensuring Ukraine has military support ahead of potential negotiations, potentially under the leadership of Donald Trump, who is expected to return to office in the coming years.  

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated, “The stronger our military support to Ukraine is now, the stronger their hand will be at the negotiating table.”  

Meanwhile, major military providers such as the United States and Germany are ramping up aid ahead of uncertain political changes in Washington.

Nuclear Weapons Back on the Radar?

While Ukraine has ruled out an immediate return to nuclear weapons, whispers of their reconsideration continue to circulate. Last month, reports surfaced that a document in the Ministry of Defence alluded to the possibility of developing a nuclear device within months if circumstances deteriorate.  

Alina Frolova, a former deputy defense minister, believes the discussion is serious. “That’s obviously an option which is in discussion in Ukraine, among experts,” she said. “In case we see that we have no support and we are losing this war and we need to protect our people… I believe it could be an option.”  

Although nuclear weapons are far from being a concrete plan, the discussion reflects Ukraine's strategic uncertainty in the face of an unpredictable international landscape.

Historic Sites of Strategic Power and Reflection

At the Pervomais’k base, one 30-meter-deep ICBM silo remains intact, a preserved relic from the Cold War. Built in 1979 and designed to withstand a nuclear attack, it serves as both a historical monument and a reminder of a precarious geopolitical past.  

In a cramped control room at the bottom of the silo, former missile technician Oleksandr Sushchenko demonstrates how intercontinental missile launches would have operated. “Two operators would have turned the key and pressed the button,” he explains, showing the grey keys used to initiate launches—an eerie reminder of the destructive power of the Cold War era.  

Reflecting on the dismantling of Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal, Sushchenko admits that while the removal of intercontinental weapons may have been logical in 1994 when threats seemed distant, maintaining a small tactical arsenal might have bolstered Ukraine’s security.  

“We could have kept a few dozen tactical warheads. That would have guaranteed security for our country,” he says.  

While the return of nuclear weapons remains speculative and unlikely in the short term, the discussion itself signals growing uncertainty about the future security landscape as Ukraine continues to grapple with Russia’s invasion and shifting alliances.

The snowy base near Pervomais’k now stands as both a historical curiosity and a symbol of the strategic decisions that continue to shape Ukraine's fate amid geopolitical upheaval.